Aimim In Up Election Uttarpradesh Vidhan Sabha Election 2017

Aimim In Up Election This time In Uttar Pradesh Aimim A Hyderabad Based Political Party Taking Part In Up Elections.

The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen(AIMIM) seems to have started its poll campaign for 2017 UP polls.

State president, AIMIM, Shaukat Ali told TOI ” The announcement of party candidates would be held soon for UP polls”. He added that the selection of candidates was in last phase and list of candidates would be released shortly.

Meanwhile, city AIMIM leaders said that the announcement of candidates would be held within two or three days as party is going to contest from three assembly seats of Allahabad — City West, City South and Soraon — in the 2017 Assembly elections in the state.

Mahanagar president of AIMIM, Afsar Mahmood, told TOI, “As the announcement of candidates is scheduled shortly, party workers and leaders have already started poll campaign on social media as well as door to door campaign”. He further added “The party has strengthen its organizational structure and has plans to contest three out of 12 assembly constituencies of the Sangam city including City West, City South and Soraon.

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What People Are Saying About Aimim In Up Election

Those who are closely following AIMIM surely know that how Assaduddin Owaisi a  barrister from Hyderabad is entering into national politics from Hyderabad politics. It not only made its mark in old Hyderabad, but also in Maharashtra and Karnataka municipality elections and in Maharashtra and Bihar assembly elections.

They even won 4 Zila panchayat seats in UP last year. Having said that, it is still not easy for Old Hyderabad leader to make his mark in Lucknow.

Let us understand how AIMIM will perform in UP from the perspectives of different parties:

  1. Samajwadi Party (SP): Now in last two decades SP is known to be the “owner “ of Muslim votes. SP has always been relying on MY (muslim and yadavs votes) to sustain in UP politics until last elections when it repeated the magic of “social engineering” of Mayawati (which she did in 2007). Now, it is most likely that it will not be able to repeat the same magic. reasons are : Mujaffarnagar riots, Dadri, reservation issue, etc. All these issues clearly hampered the SP’s chance in 2017 elections. Now, seeing this as an opportunity AIMIM can woo voters towards itself and muslims after seeing AIMIM’s performance in other states can vote for AIMIM. However, there is a trend in UP as far as muslims voting pattern is concerned: First they prefer voting to Muslims, then to SP candidate and after that the one who can defeat BJP (its not always true but is a general trend). In this scenario, SP can score over AIMIM as people would not like to vote that party which can not defeat BJP and also entry of AIMIM can cause polarization of votes and it can go in favor of BJP. So it will be better for muslims to vote SP (which can defeat BJP) and in this way AIMIM chances will be very less in UP 2017 elections.

2. Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) : Many people see BSP as natural party to win 2017 UP elections. reasons for this is anti-incumbency wave against SP government. Now Mayawati can again her magic of 2007 if muslims vote for her as they did back in 2007. If they did, then chances of AIMIM will be very less as Mayawati’s party is more reliable and is capable of defeating BJP. on the other hand Muslims in UP are not so happy with Mayawati as she had done a little for them when she was in power between 2007–12. This can go against behenji and can boost the chance of AIMIM if muslims decide to vote against SP and decides not give their precious votes to behenji.

3. Congress: Last time they got seats in 20s. This is just 5% of UP assembly. AIMIM’s performance will not be affected much by Congresse’s politics. Only thing which can happen is that all those handful number of people who still vote for congress can go in favor of AIMIM and make situation even worse for INC and can be little helpful for AIMIM.

4. BJP: BJP is very aggressive now in UP in order to win the election. Many political pandits have said that BJP might come in power if they make right candidates and choose candidates wisely. Now if this BJP wave is in real then muslims can go for AIMIM who claims to be voice of muslims throughout India now. If muslims come to conclusion that no party in UP this time can stop BJP then they might vote to AIMIM as its party chief had been in past challenging BJP leadership with all his might. This can at least assure muslims that they will get enough and visible representation in large assembly of 403 members. So, BJP’s rising can boost AIMIM’S chances.

Assumptions:

  1. Seeing the voting pattern of Bihar, Karnataka, MH and Telengana, Hindus are not likely to vote in number that will boost AIMIM’s chances.
  2. The above analysis assumes that Muslims vote in chunk in favor of particular party . Overall, approximately 54 per cent of Muslim voters supported the Samajwadi Party and 20 per cent supported the Bahujan Samaj Party in 2012 state elections. In contrast, only 8 per cent supported the Congress

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Opinion Poll In Hindi- Uttar Pradesh Election Opinion Poll In Hindi Up Vidhan Sabha Election

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